Brett Marshall (by Alex Eisenberg)

From Baseball-Intellect

Scouting Yankees Pitching Prospect Brett Marshall

With first round draft pick Gerrit Cole opting for college over the Yankees, the best hope of finding a front of the rotation starter out of the 2008 draft class falls into the hands of Brett Marshall. While his upside may not be quite that high, it is certainly considerable. However, there is no doubt that Marshall is a very raw product.

Mechanics

A couple thoughts:

1. Marshall is slide-stepping in the clip on the right. That should be eliminated because he's learning from two separate sets of mechanics (the leg kick and the slide-step). That leads to consistency issues in how he performs from the stretch and the wind-up. In addition, the slide-step is meant to be quicker to the plate. You eliminate some of the lower body action to speeden up the delivery and as a result, you can lessen the quality of your stuff and become more "armsy" of a throw, something that should be avoided.

2. Front side mechanics - a little awkward (see how the glove tilts to the side as he firms up?), but they get the job done. This is important in terms of control and finding a consistent release point.

Arm Action

Now, I'm sure the first thing many readers noticed is Marshall's arm action. He makes an "Inverted-W" or more simply, an M. That's not a guarantee for injury as some would have you believe, but I think it's safe to say you can raise his risk factor.

One reason why the injury risk rises is that it can delay the external rotation, which occurs when the forearm appears "lay back" as the arm is rotating into release. The elbow goes above the shoulder, but drops back down just as the front shoulder begins to open. In an effort to keep up with the opening of his front shoulder, Marshall's rotation is faster, more forceful. This is good for velocity, but perhaps more stressful on the shoulder because again, more force is being applied to the shoulder.

That's just a theory though. Until we get actual research and evidence of its affects, all we are dealing with is speculation.

Keep in mind that such an arm action could explain why certain pitchers throw as hard as they do. It's also possible the arm action is more comfortable for the pitchers who use it. No one arm action is right for everybody.

Ultimately, the Inverted-W is something that has been defined differently by multiple people, so there is no question that confusion abounds on the topic and the term is often misused when discussing mechanics. I hope to do a more in-depth article on the Inverted-W in the near future.

Keeping Marshall Healthy

Should the Yankees fix Marshall's arm action "problem"? I don't think so....unless it's becoming clear his shoulder can't handle the velocities that are associated with it. Just make sure he has good timing with regards to the other parts of his mechanics and be careful about pushing him too hard as he builds up arm strength.

Marshall may very well may get injured as a pitcher, but it may not be because of his mechanics, which are only a small part of the equation. It may be because he was overworked as a high school pitcher by his coaches. Does 146 pitches for a 17-year old sound like something that was done to preserve Marshall's future health?

My feeling is that Marshall should really be treated with kids gloves. My reasoning includes the fact that Marshall is relatively new to pitching as he was only recently converted from shortstop. While his arm has less mileage on it--there should be questions about how well his arm is conditioned to handle heavy loads of pitching. He's going to need time to:

1. Learn the different facets of pitching (selection, setting up hitters, etc)

2. Build up innings in reasonable intervals and as I stated early, treat him with kids gloves--especially in his first couple years of professional ball.

Stride

Marshall drops his front leg in a straight line toward home plate. There are many ways to stride into foot plant, but I like what Marshall does because I think he makes it easier for himself to add momentum into foot plant and achieve a forceful rotation of the hips.

The path his front leg takes should also help him enact a longer stride, which is something he should strongly consider doing. A longer stride could add a couple mph to his fastball as he gives his legs a bigger role in the generation of velocity. His fastball would also get on hitters a little more quickly because he would be releasing the ball a little closer to home plate. You can see an illustration of this in the graphics in the "Stuff"' section.

Stuff

Marshall has very good, very lively stuff. The fastball sits between 89-96 with plenty of tail and sink. He said in this interview he threw two fastballs: a 2-seamer and 4-seamer, which would explain the variations in velocity. This may also mean Marshall has the ability to become a groundball/strikeout type pitcher, which would make him a sabermetric favorite.

The slider, which he didn't throw in the video provided, is regarded as his out pitch and clocks in between 84 and 88 mph, while the change-up is presently a below average pitch. Marshall did throw what looked like a curveball with a nice sharp break. It was clocked at 76 mph. Below is Marshall's fastball (left) and curveball (right) in action:

In terms of control and command, he still needs to find consistency with each of his pitches, but judging from his overall mechanics and from what I have read and seen, I would say his control projects anywhere from average to above average.

As noted earlier, Marshall's upside may not be top of the line, but he can get pretty close. However, the gap from what he is to what he can is quite large. '

Should Marshall remain healthy, I see his upside as a mid-level No. 2 starter with his downside--not including the usual "blows his arm out" downside--to be a solid power-arm out of the pen.

Jeremy Bleich (by Alex Eisenberg)

From Hardball Times

Breaking down the draft: Picks 44-49

Bleich has a pretty good tempo—he comes out around 24 frames from the point at which his knee reaches its uppermost point until release. Usually, the faster one's tempo, the better one's velocity; however, Bleich's velocity registered only between 87-91 mph.

One thing I was not impressed with was his arm action—it's a bit long, and he didn't generate much arm speed from the loaded position into release. He appears to be pushing the ball rather than throwing it. Also, he's a little too "tall-and-fall" for my taste, meaning that he comes to a balance point before driving toward home plate. He is essentially stopping his momentum mid-way through his wind-up. He isn't a complete tall-and-fall pitcher, but I would rather see his hips moving toward home plate a little earlier.

One thing that Bleich seemed to struggle with was his release point, which is probably one reason for his poor control at Stanford this past year. I can think of a couple reasons for this:

1. Front-side mechanics - Bleich's front-side mechanics aren't necessarily bad, but there is something that's not quite right. It could be Bleich firming up a little too late, or not leaving the glove extended out in front of his chest. Instead of letting the chest meet the glove, Bleich pulls the glove back, which I'm not really a fan of.

2. A somewhat late body rotation - I actually like the fact that Bleich has a fairly late body rotation, since it adds deception to his pitches, but it can have a negative impact on a pitcher's command if he doesn't have great body control and precise timing for when his body rotates and the arm is brought around into release.

Fastball Grade - 40 Now, 45 Future

Curveball Grade - 45 Now, 50 Future

As I mentioned earlier, Bleich's fastball clocks in only between 87 and 91. However, his fastball does have some decent tailing action. In addition to his fastball, Bleich has a low-to-mid-70s curve, which he actually commands a bit better than his fastball. He has issues with the consistency of the curveball, and as of now it profiles as a close to average pitch. I've read that his change-up is his best pitch, but he didn't throw one in the video I saw.

If you're a numbers guy, then you probably aren't happy with this pick. Bleich's strikeout numbers were okay (8.0 K/9), but his control scares the death out of me (5.1 BB/9). In addition, he appears to be a fly-ball pitcher (though the sample size is small). That isn't a combination that I would like in any pitcher.

Now, if you're searching for positives, Bleich's control was much better in '06 and '07. However, his K rate was also lower. Also, he gave up just one home run this past year; on the other hand, his home run rate was a lot higher the prior two years, as was his H/9.

Overall, I'm not very impressed with Bleich, and I feel that there better picks on the board, even among players who were drafted for their "signability."