Andrew Brackman (by Lane Meyer)

From Nomaas.org

Deep thoughts

by NoMaas' Lane Meyer on 9/6/07

It's a slow period regarding the minors given the season coming to a close, but I can't get Andrew Brackman out of my mind recently.

Now that he's signed and had surgery, any apprehension I had about him is gone. This doesn’t mean that I think he’s going to become a Major League star, but from a prospect standpoint, it completely amazes me when I take a step back and look at what Brackman is, and that he is now in the Yankees organization.

Brackman wasn't just a "top talent” like any other draft pick, he was a "unique talent," too. Every year there are pitchers in the MLB draft that throw in the upper 90s, and they are considered the cream of the crop – the top talent available. Every year there are also the unique talents, too; the guys that have an advantage over the rest of their peers simply because of the way they are constructed physically. Most often, those players that are uniquely talented regarding their body types are not the top talents in the draft based on their raw performance skills. Teams may be interested in a guy because he’s 6’8” and throws in the low 90s, because they see his unique talent (size) and perceive the chance to work with him to raise the performance talent (his velocity) to an elite level. Conversely, there are players (think Daniel Bard) that draw interest from a “top talent” perspective, but aren’t unique from their peers from a developmental standpoint going forward – they don’t have anything about them physically that causes them to be seen as more intriguing than a similar performance talent.

This is what has me so excited. Brackman is both a unique talent, in that he stands nearly seven feet tall, and an elite performance talent seeing as he sits in the mid 90s, topping out around 99 mph. His height can be a plus because the ball is released much closer to the plate than it is from a normal-sized pitcher, and thus gives the batter that much less time to execute a task that already pushes the limit of a human being’s reflexes and reaction time. This is why the Mariners were so excited about Ryan Anderson. This is one of the major reasons that Padres 6’10” pitcher Chris Young, despite sitting in the 88-92 range, is able to blow a fastball by Major League hitters. This is the reason that when Randy Johnson was in his prime hitters had almost no chance at catching up to his heater. A 97 MPH fastball thrown by Brackman from a release point nearly a foot closer to the plate is the equivalent of a normal-sized pitcher throwing 100 MPH or more.

Now, of course there is the downside, and it is substantial given the paucity of successful, tall pitchers. There are so many moving parts, so much room for error in the repetition of his delivery, and the constant battle with leverage can wreak havoc on his body. As dominant as Randy Johnson became, he was nearly 30 years old before he finally figured out how to maximize his unique talent. While Brackman has pitched for a major college program, he didn’t have especially impressive results, nor did he develop much as a pitcher. Because of this, and his recovery from Tommy John Surgery, he has a tough row to hoe going forward. It will be at least another year before he even throws off a mound, and not until the opening of the 2009 season will he be fully recovered (assuming no setbacks).

HOWEVER, despite all of the potential pitfalls along the way, it is impossible to argue that Brackman has not only elite talent, but also a uniqueness physically; he literally has almost no comparables in the history of the sport. That is why he is so exciting to think about now. Originally the worries were about whether or not he would need surgery. Well, he did, he had it, and is now on the mend. The guessing game over his health is concluded, and what’s left is a prospect with a higher ceiling than perhaps any minor leaguer in any organization. Sure, that designation is nebulous, but when you consider everything already discussed here, it is difficult to think that any other player could have a greater upside than him.

As far as those that argue Brackman’s selection being a big error, and that the Yankees should have gone for a more projectable pitcher like Harvey, or even Smoker, consider this: The Yankees are already packed with pitching prospects. Not including Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain, they have potentially exceptional bullpen arms like McCutchen, Tejeda, and Ohlendorf on the cusp of being ML ready. If an injury to a starter occurs, they have a guy like Horne ready to step in next year and spot-start. Additionally, they have high profile guys in the lower levels like Reyes, Heredia, and Nova developing, while injecting some more solid, polished arms via this year’s draft in Pope, Chigges, Olbyrchowski, and Zink. Needing hitting talent, the Yanks got top-of-the-draft bats with several of their first ten picks by breaking slot, and outspent everyone else in the IFA market. In summation, they addressed all of their deficiencies, and they knew they were going to before they even selected the giant righty.

So, when you consider that they had a plan in place to acquire a high-end group of hitting talents to go along with their already formidable stable of pitching prospects, you can see just how easy it was to select Brackman. Regardless of the odds of him actually panning out, picking 30th, even with slotting causing the talent distribution to be uneven, the Yankees should never even have had a shot at drafting such a unique prospect, let alone question whether or not taking him is worth the risk. By building their system up over the past two years, and by committing overslot money to garner additional hitting talent this year, they made it entirely acceptable to take a chance on the high-ceiling, broken-down enigma. And make no mistake about it: from a talent and ceiling perspective there were three out pitching prospect that were quite clearly on a different level than everyone else: Price, Porcello, and Brackman.

This brings us back to the original point, that Brackman’s arm would require surgery, and how this made us all a bit apprehensive about the selection. Well, he already has had the procedure, and with the high success rate of recovery, it’s encouraging to no end that he’s currently on the rehab road. If all goes well, he could be making a few rehab starts at the end of the 2008 minor league season, go to Hawaii for winterball, and then be fully recovered and ready to test his mettle come Spring Training 2009.

Who knows if he’ll come back strong? Who knows if he’ll develop a third pitch beyond his devastating fastball and freakish knuckle-curve? Who knows if he’ll ever pitch in the Bronx at all? All of these questions certainly cast doubt on his selection, but no more so than with any other high-ceiling draft pick with question marks. What is comforting though, is that the Yankees are not relying on Andrew Brackman to be their first-round, franchise-saving dominator like other teams would have to, given the amount of money he required to sign. Instead, this was a chance for a wealthy organization with a brimming farm system to get even richer, and by a lot, too. The natural inclination to be impatient with prospects is what subconsciously drives people to be upset with this deal, but if you can fast-forward two years and see Andrew Brackman closing out his first, full minor league season, and his line looks like

25 GS, 120 IP, 85 H, 80 BB, 150 K, 3.80 ERA

How upset are you going to be? Taking a step back, how upset are you going to be when he starts to throw off flat ground in 7-8 months and we read reports about how hard he worked during his rehab, and how excited he is that the velocity is back? How upset are you going to be when Our Lord and Savior Nardi is saying he’s never seen anything like Brackman in all his life? How upset are you going to be when he makes a rehab start late next year and we read quotes from the opposing manager about how, despite giving up a couple of homeruns, his stuff was so obviously overpowering? How it looked like he was releasing the ball halfway to homeplate, and how his hitters were a bit nervous digging in?

The truth is, none of us know what’s going to happen, and in a vacuum there is every reason to cast doubt on his signing. In reality though, the Yankees weren’t taking Andrew Brackman as the foundation upon which to construct the future, and then building atop and around him with subsequent draft picks. The foundation had already been built, and despite his status as the "first-round pick" Brackman was actually the last addition to the plan; the new wing to a well-built mansion. He is going to be the single most fun prospect to follow in the coming months, regardless of the ultimate outcome of his career. If he fails it’s not because the Yankees made a terrible decision, it is because the flaws that every prospect has prevented him from developing. It is for the same reasons that the majority of first-round picks never amount to anything significant. However if he succeeds…oh man if he succeeds…

Andrew Brackman

Born: 12/04/1985
Height: 6'10" Weight: 230 lbs
Position: SP
Throws: R
Transactions: Selected in 1st Round (30th overall) of 2007 draft out of North Carolina State University.

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Fastball: 2縫線與4縫線，92-97 mph，極速可達99 mph，plus。
Breaking Ball: spike curveball，78-81 mph，可達84 mph，plus。
Changeup: 82-84 mph，above average
Control: 2縫線速球控制地很棒，變化球可以投到好球帶的邊緣，但不太穩定。
Strengths: 傑出的運動員，身材條件佳，擁有身高優勢，以及他的快速球以及變化球。
Weaknesses: 投球姿態幅度大，還不是很順暢，這也是造成他手肘開刀的原因之一。變化球的控制，如果投不進好球帶，大學等級的打者會追打而揮空，但職業打者則放掉不打。原本籃球棒球雙棲球員，從未投過一個完整的球季，轉戰職業棒球後，能否承受長時間的季賽，況且不是個高完成度的SP。
影片1(MLB-Scouting Video)
圖片集(Scout.com)

Brackman的速球94-96 mph(4縫線與2縫線皆可)，常常飆到99 mph，他利用高大的身驅做為優勢，由高向下投出快速球；和快速球一樣棒的是他的spike曲球，進壘球速大概在84 mph左右，正好投進好球帶邊緣，是他主要的三振球種；開刀之前，他把他的變速球從不太可靠提升到平均水準之上，未來還可在精進。當他處在最佳狀況時，打者幾乎不可能有機會打到球。他很投入比賽，也勇於把球投進好球帶挑戰打者。

作為一個6'10"的投手有一些主要的潛在問題，Brackman投球動作過大，不是很協調，身體平衡與放球點一直有問題，也不夠成熟，還在發展穩定的投球姿勢，很可能會需要幾年的時間，而不是幾個月(看看Randy Johnson或是Jon Rauch)。

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歷年成績：
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Andrew-Brackman.shtml

Brackman從小生長在俄亥俄州辛辛那提市，在辛辛那提市擁有豐富棒球傳統的Moeller高中(學校的校友名單包括Buddy & David Bell、Adam Hyzdu、Barry Larkin以及Ken Griffey Jr)，開啟他的兩項運動。籃球場上，每場平均得分20分、6個籃板，高四時，得分與命中率(.654)領先該聯盟，罰球命中率以第2名(.882)做收，他被選為俄亥俄州分區1的年度最佳球員、全州第1隊，也是俄亥俄州籃球先生獎項的亞軍。投手丘上，他在國內篡起成為最好的高中投手之一，繳出俄亥俄州歷史上第7佳的ERA(1.04)，高中球員生涯中，幫助學校打進州冠軍賽以及聯盟冠軍，BA把他排在2004年選秀該州最好新秀第4名。

2005年，雖然有一堆成就，很多球隊選秀時卻不敢選Brackman，因為他的雙棲球員身份，而且腱炎有輕微發作，沒有被選到之後，他跑去北卡羅來納州立大學主修經濟，同時打棒球與籃球，身為大一新生，為籃球校隊打出亮眼的成績，卻因棒球隊而弄得暈頭轉向，儘管到四月初都還沒登板，因為與籃球時程相衝，他仍為Wolfpack出賽中繼3次，還有7次先發，都為球隊贏球，最後階段，他表現傑出，在東卡羅來納投出6局無失分，接著對上Andrew Miller以及排第7名的北卡羅來納大學繳出12K，最後以7局1失分力克第8名的邁阿密大學，拿下ACC錦標賽第1輪冠軍。當你可能猜想著，對於他的新生球季會有很多期待，不幸的是事情不如預期，因為在只有7場出賽後，他髖部的疲勞性骨折讓他結束這個球季，然而在這個傷勢之前，他在籃球校隊出賽全部的32場球，幫助球隊打進前16強，從這個傷勢復原之後，決定退出籃球，專心打棒球。

2006年，Brackman努力彌補浪費掉的時間，同時建立起選秀行情，他跑到Cape Cod聯盟，在Orleans Cardinals出賽6場(2場先發)最後繳出ERA1.06，但是他提早離開球隊，加入美國國家隊，投出4局無失分，即便他提前離開Cape Cod，BA仍把他列在該聯盟中的第2名新秀，僅次於南加大一壘手Justin Smoak，在非正式的會談裡，Justin Smoak已是2008年選秀第1順位。

2007年，Brackman開始他的選秀年，他幾乎是在選秀看板的第一位。季初他掌控一切，在前面的17.1局裡，18次SO，無失分，全都替Wolfpack贏球(包括這場對上波士頓學院)，最後衝刺階段，他開始顯露疲態，掩蓋過前2年的所有表現，同時也遭受肘腱疼痛，以及前女友車禍身亡後，離開球隊一段時間，從3/31之後，他再也沒投過一球。一月，他還是順理成章的第1順位候選人，次於平常水準的球季/受傷/簽約金使得很多球隊在選秀當天不敢選他，洋基在第30順位選中他，經過多次協商後，同意4年大聯盟合約，可能使他成為選秀史上最有錢的球員，合約內容如下：
4 years/$4.55M (2007-10)
signed 8/15/07 (Major League contract)
options & escalators may increase value to $13M
drafted 2007 (1-30) (NC State), $3.35M signing bonus
agent: Scott Boras
Brackman在8月底接受TJ手術，冬季要在Tampa進行復健，這不同於多數的TJ病人回家度過前幾個月。

2008年，Brackman進行TJ手術之後的復健。對他而言，一般的復健時程如下：
12月底/1月初: 平地丟球
2月底/3月初: 投手丘上投球
3月底/4月初: 開始投變化球
5月-6月: 開始在打擊練習/模擬比賽中投球
8月-9月: 重回球場
Brackman回到場上的時間可能很快，洋基會仔細監控他在延長春訓的露面時間，接下來參加秋季指導聯盟，冬季聯盟也不是不可能，但只有在他回來感覺狀況很棒之下，比較有可能回到球隊的時間是2009年。

很多人質疑洋基的選擇，幹嘛挑一個手肘有問題的傢伙，但是不選Brackman也不知道該選誰，在他後面被選中的球員，沒有一個的ceiling高過他，他至少是3號以上的SP，之前被選中的球員，也沒幾個比他好。NoMaas的Lane Meyer有段話可以參考看看:
實際的想法是洋基選Andrew Brackman不是做為重建未來的根基，接著以他為主環繞著他，用後來的選秀權來建構。基礎已經建好了，儘管他的身份是第1輪選秀新人，Brackman確實是這個計畫最後的擴增；如同把全新羽翼裝在一棟蓋得很好的大樓上。
這個選秀是高風險，但是每個選秀都有風險，代價是455萬元，說真的，那沒什麼，比洋基花在Carl Pavano身上的還不到12%，不如我們靜靜坐下來欣賞這小子能做出什麼好玩的事。

Ceiling: A/A+, Health: C, Comparison: Incomplete

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