2008 Prospects List (mid-season)

From Pending Pinstripes

A look back at the offseason Top 30 Prospects list #1-10

While working on my midseason top prospect list, I am going to take a look at our offseason top 30, to see how well we did in projecting how prospects’ stocks would rise and fall. Here goes nothing, starting from the top, with #1-10

1. Ian Kennedy: Graduated, but would have dropped a little due to his control problems in the majors and injuries. He’s still a good bet to be a #4 starter in the majors, and could easily be more than that.

2. Jose Tabata : Falling due to mediocre performance, attitude problems, and injuries. While this has been a tough season for him (.248/.320/.310), he was starting to put it together in the 2nd half, hitting .342 in his last 10 games before going on the DL with a hamstring injury. Given that the jump from high-A to AA is a tough one, I’m not overly concerned about Tabata, even with his makeup questions. No way he slides out of my top 5, maybe even top 3.

3. Austin Jackson: Rising a little due to his overall solid season in AA, .295/.374/.455 before tonight’s game, also with 9 homers, 15 steals and good defense. His torrid July (in which he’s hitting .400) has brought his numbers up from where they had been sitting, but this seems to be another 2nd-half tear like he went on last season. He seems right on track to be the Yankees’ centerfielder sometime in 2009 or 2010. He’s definitely one of the top 2 prospects in the system.

4. Jesus Montero: Rising. While we ranked Montero aggressively at #4 last season, there was still the understanding that it would be hard to know what we had in him before he got to full-season ball. With a .312/.362/.453 line with 9 homers (in a home park that suppresses homers), he has shown that he can handle Sally League pitching. The defense is still a work in progress, but another season at catcher is another season closer to proving the doubters wrong.

5. Dellin Betances: Holding. Betances was ranked here with the knowledge that he is still somewhat raw mechanically and has been injured, but still has huge upside. So far this season, he has confirmed those beliefs, striking out over a batter per inning and walking almost 6 per 9 innings. If he proves he can stay healthy for a whole season and improve his control, he is a top 3 guy easily. That said, it’s hard to drop a guys with his upside outside of the top 5.

6. Alan Horne: Stock is falling a little due to injuries and mediocre performance when not on the DL. His strikeout rate was down and the walks were too high, and at 25, he doesn’t have too much time to maintain his elite prospect status.

7. Jeff Marquez: Falling for similar reasons as Horne, though he was never as highly-regarded to start with. His groundball rate is good (1.70), but 33 strikeouts in 80.7 innings is not encouraging.

8. Francisco Cervelli: Holding steady. While he has missed most of the season due to injury, he should be able to bounce back and recapture his prospect status. With most of his value in his defense, all he needs to do is be an adequate hitter and he will have value to the major league team.

9. Jairo Heredia: Rising. Similar to Montero, he impressed last season in the GCL, but we wanted to see what he could do in full-season ball. His 2.96 ERA, good groundball rate (2.00) and solid strikeout rate (8.3/9) at 18 in the Sally League certainly bode well for his future. Control is his main weakness currently.

10. Juan Miranda: Holding steady. Despite not showing the power that has been expected of him (only 7 homers so far), Miranda has hit well (.809 OPS) despite missing time because of injuries. He will need to be better than that to make it to the majors, but he has time to improve.

Evaluating the offseason top 30, Part 2

Now it’s time to take a look at prospects 11-20 on the offseason list.

11. Daniel McCutchen: Rising. While his performance last season between Tampa and Trenton was very impressive, his age (he was 24) created questions of whether he could handle the higher levels. While he has not dominated, McCutchen has handled AA and AAA this season (3.14 ERA), mixing in a couple of complete game shutouts as well in Scranton.

12. Ryan Pope: Rising. After a very impressive season in the New York-Penn League last season (2.49 ERA, 46 k’s in 43 1/3 innings), Pope has handled the tough transition to high-A with relative ease. His strikeout rate is down compared to last season (51 in 69 innings in ‘08, but he has showed great control, walking only 10 batters in those 69 innings. Pope’s stock would be higher if he hadn’t missed all of June with an injury, but he is performing just as the Yankees hoped he would. He will likely never be much of a strikeout pitcher, but his good control is an indicatorof future success.

13. Carmen Angelini SS: Falling a little. We ranked Angelini aggressively despite little to no statistical track record, banking that the Yankees wouldn’t spend 1 million on a guy who wasn’t quite talented. While Angelini is only 19, he hasn’t yet performed at a level that matches his talent. His .598 OPS in Charleston is quite mediocre, and he is not walking much nor hitting for much power. His defense, though to be the most advanced part of his game, has been shaky, as he had made way too many errors (though he has cut down on them recently). He has shown good basestealing ability (15/19 successful steals), and the other tools are there, it’s just a matter of translating them into performance.

14. Zach McAllister RHP: Zach has some serious helium in 2008, and is probably the system’s biggest riser. After showing flashes of brilliance (and strong peripherals) in an inconsistent season in Staten Island (5.17 ERA), McAllister has been lights-out this season, with a 2.48 ERA combined between Charleston and Tampa. His peripherals have also been very impressive, with a 6:1 strikeout:walk ratio and a 1.61 groundout/flyout ratio, indicating that he is having success because he is keeping the ball on the ground and in the strikezone. He’s looking like one of the safer bets among the Yankee pitching prospects in the lower minors to be at least an average major leaguer.

15. David Robertson RHP: Rising. Robertson was lights-out last season across 3 levels (0.96 ERA), and showed more of the same this season between Trenton and Scranton (1.39 ERA) before being called up to the majors. He has excelled out of the bullpen for the Bombers so far, allowing just 2 runs in 11 1/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts against just 4 walks. Major league hitters are hitting just .179 against him so far. He has earned Joe Girardi’s trust as a reliable member of the Yankee bullpen, helping to solidify a shutdown group of young relievers.

16. Brett Gardner CF: Rising. Gardner hit well in Trenton last season, but struggled upon his promotion to Scranton (.675 OPS), walking less and striking out more than we were accustomed to seeing. This season, Gardner improved his plate discipline (61 walks against 68 strikeouts) and has even hit for some power (3 homers, 11 doubles, 10 triples, .841 OPS). This impressive improvement led him to be promoted to the majors, where he has impressed with his speed and batting eye, but hasn’t had much success with the bat yet. It usually takes him time to adjust to a new level, so I’m not too concerned about him. If he can hit in the .260-.270 range and draw walks, his speed and defense will make him a valuable player this season.

17. Kevin Whelan RHP: Falling. Already 24, Whelan has had a difficult time staying healthy since being acquired in the Gary Sheffield trade. He had a a lot of strikeouts and walks last season in 82 1/3 effective innings, but has been hurt for much of 2008, only pitching 20 1/3 innings so far. He has looked nasty when healthy, but the combination of injuries and control problems are hurting his stock.

18. Brad Suttle 3b: Rising. Suttle’s pro debut last season was very disappointing, as his mediocre performance in Hawaii did not seem to justify the 1.3 million that the Yankees spent in signing him. In Charleston this season, Suttle has hit pretty well (.837 OPS), though at 22 a lot of his competition is younger than him. As a college draftee, he should be dominant in low-A if he is going to be a top-notch hitting prospect, and while he has shown potential, he hasn’t gotten there yet.

19. Abraham Almonte CF: Holding. Abe impressed last season in the GCL, handling the transition to centerfield very well while putting up a .778 OPS as a young 18 year-old (June birthday). He showed speed, pop, and solid plate discipline. This season in full-season ball, a significant jump, Almonte was holding his own through June, sitting around .270-.280 with his average, stealing bases, and getting his share of extra base hits. July, however, has been a nightmare for Almonte, as he is hitting .099 in the month (7 for 71). His .231 average looks bad, but I am not too discouraged, as he has shown himself to be capable of handling the pitching in low-A in the prior months, and he may be wearing down over the course of the long season.

20. Austin Romine C (was 21, but moved to 20 with the Clippard trade): Rising. Often overshadowed by his fellow Charleston catcher, Jesus Montero, Romine has put together a nice season in his own right. While hs is not walking very much (only 13 in 68 games), his strikeouts aren’t too high either (37), and he has hit for a solid average (.276) and shown some power (6 home runs and 17 doubles). His defense is supposed to be pretty solid, though he has allowed a few too many passed balls for my liking. His bat has impressed in his full-season debut, and so far he looks like he will be able to hit enough to be a potential starting catcher down the line.

Checking In On the Top 30 Part 1

Its time to see whether I have egg on my face after ranking the Yankee’s top-30 prospects last winter. Prospecting wouldn’t have the name if it wasn’t an inexact science. I was pretty successful during my first go around, so let’s see how the first 10 are holding up.

#30 Colin Curtis - Curtis has had a mixed season. He has hit .266/.342/.362 while playing mostly in left field for Trenton. However, the rest of Trenton hasn’t been so hot either, and the Yankees continue to hype Curtis. I think that his ranking is still appropriate, and that Curtis still remains a potential MLB backup outfielder along the lines of Jeff DaVannon.

#29 Prylis Cuello - Cuello didn’t start the season in Charleston, and has played just a handful of games between injuries for Staten Island. #29 still sounds good.

#28 Chase Wright - Wright’s an interesting figure. He’s been pretty good for Trenton this year - posting an ERA of 3.19 in 79 innings with 49 strikeouts and 29 walks. I’m still impressed by the Yankee reluctance to convert him to the bullpen. They obviously think that something is there, and elect to wait. His future is no-doubt to me as a lefty specialist, despite the fact that they’ve knocked him around a bit this year. He’s still not all that old (25), and throws with the left hand. I’d probably knock him back a spot or three if I were reranking the list, but #28 isn’t all that far off for him.

#27 Reegie Corona - Corona had a terrible start to the season. He OPSed .517 in April. Since then, Corona has hit like we expected him to this season, hitting .307/.373/.407 in May, .294/.408/.412 in June, and now .387/.394/.484 in July. By all accounts, he has adjusted to the hardest minor league level to adjust to, and could position himself as a potential major league infielder as soon as Mid-09. He’ll be very interesting to watch at spring training next year, and is still just 22 years old. The real question that remains in my mind is his ability to play shortstop instead of 2nd base. The Yankees seem committed to keeping him at short. I’m happy about where I placed him at the time, but if he keeps his pace up he’ll definitely move up at year’s end.

#26 Brad Suttle - Opinions have been mixed about Suttle. In the strange hitter’s environment that is Charleston and the South Atlantic League, Suttle has hit .271/.348/.486 this season, despite a myriad of injuries. Considering how worried we were about his transition from a different swing and different bat to his current hitting style, and considering how many nagging injuries he’s had to deal with, I think its safe to be happy with Suttle’s performance so far. I’m not sure how much he’ll climb in the rankings next year, but a strong second half could propel him 10 spots.

#25 Austin Romine - Romine is in a difficult position down in Charleston. He was pushed to A ball because of his enormous talent, but has to play second fiddle to Jesus Montero. Throw in an injury, and he’s been struggling. Romine has hit .282/.319/.390 with a 32/12 K/BB ratio in 62 games. He’ll probably stick to Charleston next year, and compete for playing with Chase Weems. As we saw with Austin Jackson (who was comparatively older at the same stage), that’s not the end of the world.

#24 George Kontos - Kontos is kind of the forgotton pitcher in the farm system this year. After making the big jump from the Florida State League, Kontos has a 3.67 ERA in 98 innings with 8.75 K/9 and 3.30 BB/9. Those are very solid numbers, and should put him right on track to start 2009 in Scranton. I think its safe to put the “Guy who has been good for exactly 3 months out of his career” label behind Kontos. He’ll gain momentum, but I am happy with where I placed him over the summer.

#23 Zach McAllister - Here’s one breakout that I probably should have read earlier. My fellow Pending Pinstripes authors had him much higher. McAllister’s stupendous control has proppelled him this season. With just 1.10 BB/9, McAllister has one of the best rates in the minors. He’s going to skyrocket up this list in a few months. I screwed up here.

#22 Marcos Vechionacci - He’s been out with a quad injury all year, despite showing some signs of hitting. He’s running out of time. I don’t completely regret my placement, although I feel like he earned extra nostalgia points. He’ll be leapfrogged.

#21 Michael Dunn - Dunn has failed to build on his excellent 2007 season at Charleston. Perhaps he is fatigued, or perhaps he lacks the stuff to handle more advanced hitters. Still, his 4.44 ERA and 47 walks in 95 innings clearly throw egg on to my face. I reached with this pick, and was not vindicated by a breakout.
The verdict so far: 8 good ratings, 2 bad ones. Not bad?