Andrew Brackman (by Lane Meyer)

From Nomaas.org

Deep thoughts

by NoMaas' Lane Meyer on 9/6/07

It's a slow period regarding the minors given the season coming to a close, but I can't get Andrew Brackman out of my mind recently.

Now that he's signed and had surgery, any apprehension I had about him is gone. This doesn’t mean that I think he’s going to become a Major League star, but from a prospect standpoint, it completely amazes me when I take a step back and look at what Brackman is, and that he is now in the Yankees organization.

Brackman wasn't just a "top talent” like any other draft pick, he was a "unique talent," too. Every year there are pitchers in the MLB draft that throw in the upper 90s, and they are considered the cream of the crop – the top talent available. Every year there are also the unique talents, too; the guys that have an advantage over the rest of their peers simply because of the way they are constructed physically. Most often, those players that are uniquely talented regarding their body types are not the top talents in the draft based on their raw performance skills. Teams may be interested in a guy because he’s 6’8” and throws in the low 90s, because they see his unique talent (size) and perceive the chance to work with him to raise the performance talent (his velocity) to an elite level. Conversely, there are players (think Daniel Bard) that draw interest from a “top talent” perspective, but aren’t unique from their peers from a developmental standpoint going forward – they don’t have anything about them physically that causes them to be seen as more intriguing than a similar performance talent.

This is what has me so excited. Brackman is both a unique talent, in that he stands nearly seven feet tall, and an elite performance talent seeing as he sits in the mid 90s, topping out around 99 mph. His height can be a plus because the ball is released much closer to the plate than it is from a normal-sized pitcher, and thus gives the batter that much less time to execute a task that already pushes the limit of a human being’s reflexes and reaction time. This is why the Mariners were so excited about Ryan Anderson. This is one of the major reasons that Padres 6’10” pitcher Chris Young, despite sitting in the 88-92 range, is able to blow a fastball by Major League hitters. This is the reason that when Randy Johnson was in his prime hitters had almost no chance at catching up to his heater. A 97 MPH fastball thrown by Brackman from a release point nearly a foot closer to the plate is the equivalent of a normal-sized pitcher throwing 100 MPH or more.

Now, of course there is the downside, and it is substantial given the paucity of successful, tall pitchers. There are so many moving parts, so much room for error in the repetition of his delivery, and the constant battle with leverage can wreak havoc on his body. As dominant as Randy Johnson became, he was nearly 30 years old before he finally figured out how to maximize his unique talent. While Brackman has pitched for a major college program, he didn’t have especially impressive results, nor did he develop much as a pitcher. Because of this, and his recovery from Tommy John Surgery, he has a tough row to hoe going forward. It will be at least another year before he even throws off a mound, and not until the opening of the 2009 season will he be fully recovered (assuming no setbacks).

HOWEVER, despite all of the potential pitfalls along the way, it is impossible to argue that Brackman has not only elite talent, but also a uniqueness physically; he literally has almost no comparables in the history of the sport. That is why he is so exciting to think about now. Originally the worries were about whether or not he would need surgery. Well, he did, he had it, and is now on the mend. The guessing game over his health is concluded, and what’s left is a prospect with a higher ceiling than perhaps any minor leaguer in any organization. Sure, that designation is nebulous, but when you consider everything already discussed here, it is difficult to think that any other player could have a greater upside than him.

As far as those that argue Brackman’s selection being a big error, and that the Yankees should have gone for a more projectable pitcher like Harvey, or even Smoker, consider this: The Yankees are already packed with pitching prospects. Not including Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain, they have potentially exceptional bullpen arms like McCutchen, Tejeda, and Ohlendorf on the cusp of being ML ready. If an injury to a starter occurs, they have a guy like Horne ready to step in next year and spot-start. Additionally, they have high profile guys in the lower levels like Reyes, Heredia, and Nova developing, while injecting some more solid, polished arms via this year’s draft in Pope, Chigges, Olbyrchowski, and Zink. Needing hitting talent, the Yanks got top-of-the-draft bats with several of their first ten picks by breaking slot, and outspent everyone else in the IFA market. In summation, they addressed all of their deficiencies, and they knew they were going to before they even selected the giant righty.

So, when you consider that they had a plan in place to acquire a high-end group of hitting talents to go along with their already formidable stable of pitching prospects, you can see just how easy it was to select Brackman. Regardless of the odds of him actually panning out, picking 30th, even with slotting causing the talent distribution to be uneven, the Yankees should never even have had a shot at drafting such a unique prospect, let alone question whether or not taking him is worth the risk. By building their system up over the past two years, and by committing overslot money to garner additional hitting talent this year, they made it entirely acceptable to take a chance on the high-ceiling, broken-down enigma. And make no mistake about it: from a talent and ceiling perspective there were three out pitching prospect that were quite clearly on a different level than everyone else: Price, Porcello, and Brackman.

This brings us back to the original point, that Brackman’s arm would require surgery, and how this made us all a bit apprehensive about the selection. Well, he already has had the procedure, and with the high success rate of recovery, it’s encouraging to no end that he’s currently on the rehab road. If all goes well, he could be making a few rehab starts at the end of the 2008 minor league season, go to Hawaii for winterball, and then be fully recovered and ready to test his mettle come Spring Training 2009.

Who knows if he’ll come back strong? Who knows if he’ll develop a third pitch beyond his devastating fastball and freakish knuckle-curve? Who knows if he’ll ever pitch in the Bronx at all? All of these questions certainly cast doubt on his selection, but no more so than with any other high-ceiling draft pick with question marks. What is comforting though, is that the Yankees are not relying on Andrew Brackman to be their first-round, franchise-saving dominator like other teams would have to, given the amount of money he required to sign. Instead, this was a chance for a wealthy organization with a brimming farm system to get even richer, and by a lot, too. The natural inclination to be impatient with prospects is what subconsciously drives people to be upset with this deal, but if you can fast-forward two years and see Andrew Brackman closing out his first, full minor league season, and his line looks like

25 GS, 120 IP, 85 H, 80 BB, 150 K, 3.80 ERA

How upset are you going to be? Taking a step back, how upset are you going to be when he starts to throw off flat ground in 7-8 months and we read reports about how hard he worked during his rehab, and how excited he is that the velocity is back? How upset are you going to be when Our Lord and Savior Nardi is saying he’s never seen anything like Brackman in all his life? How upset are you going to be when he makes a rehab start late next year and we read quotes from the opposing manager about how, despite giving up a couple of homeruns, his stuff was so obviously overpowering? How it looked like he was releasing the ball halfway to homeplate, and how his hitters were a bit nervous digging in?

The truth is, none of us know what’s going to happen, and in a vacuum there is every reason to cast doubt on his signing. In reality though, the Yankees weren’t taking Andrew Brackman as the foundation upon which to construct the future, and then building atop and around him with subsequent draft picks. The foundation had already been built, and despite his status as the "first-round pick" Brackman was actually the last addition to the plan; the new wing to a well-built mansion. He is going to be the single most fun prospect to follow in the coming months, regardless of the ultimate outcome of his career. If he fails it’s not because the Yankees made a terrible decision, it is because the flaws that every prospect has prevented him from developing. It is for the same reasons that the majority of first-round picks never amount to anything significant. However if he succeeds…oh man if he succeeds…